College Football Season Preview

The college football season begins in earnest tonight with a huge game at 10:15 pm ET on ESPN featuring #14 Oregon at #16 Boise State. Since the season is now upon us, I just wanted to offer up a few thoughts about the college football scene this year. I believe that the 2009 college football season has the potential to be an epic one. All you have to do is start at the top. I can’t recall a time when 3 excellent players and Heisman Trophy contenders from arguably the top 3 schools in the nation all returned to school and put the NFL off for a year. Florida QB Tim Tebow, Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, and Texas QB Colt McCoy should make things very exciting for college football fans in ‘09. And without question, these three will be instrumental in guiding their teams toward a national championship.

While I expect a great season of football and some awesome games, I think there are only a handful of contenders for the title and I do not anticipate a dark horse making a run. Florida is clearly the favorite to repeat as National Champion. They are returning all 11 starters on defense and the return of Tebow will keep their high powered offense rolling. I have stated before that I do not like Tim Tebow, mostly because of how the media tends to portray the guy as perfect. I respect his will to win and compete, but I feel that he will just turn out to be one of those college phenoms who eventually fall flat when they get to the NFL. With that said though, the guy is a beast on the college level and I don’t think he will let the team get lazy. I see Florida cruising to win the SEC East and then most likely matching up with Alabama, LSU, or Mississippi for the SEC Championship which they should also win. Due to the SEC being the toughest conference, Florida should be able to withstand one loss as long as it is not in the SEC Championship game. Someone could surprise them, which does seem to happen every year, but they will be favored to win every single game and make it to the BCS Title game.

Florida’s likely opponent in that game could be decided on October 17th when Texas takes on Oklahoma. Last year, Texas won the game 45-35, but due to a crazy rule in the Big 12 that uses BCS standings as one of the tiebreakers to determine a division champion, Oklahoma beat out Texas for the Big 12 South Division Title and were then able to parlay that into a Big 12 Championship win and a shot at the National Title. I don’t expect such shenanigans this year and the winner of this game will likely win the Big 12 South and be able to get to the BCS Title game. The game should be one hell of a shootout between Bradford and McCoy. McCoy is the trendy pick this year for the Heisman Trophy and many people are taking Texas to make it to the BCS Title game. I tend to agree and have to jump on the bandwagon. I believe Texas will find enough motivation from last year’s disappointment to win the game and the Big 12 and get their shot this year. If that happens, McCoy will most likely have the inside track on the Heisman and it will be a spread the wealth situation: voters could be hesitant to give out a 2nd Trophy to Bradford or Tebow and all three could end up with one by December. If Oklahoma is able to beat Texas in this game though, expect Oklahoma to take on Florida in a BCS Championship rematch from last year.

I honestly believe that the only other team outside of the “big 3” this year to have a shot at the National Championship is USC. The Trojans always have a wealth of talent and Pete Carroll is a master at recruiting, so USC will always have a good team. Over the past few seasons though, they have fallen short and I expect the same this year. USC has handed the QB job to freshman Matt Barkley. Now Barkley was the most sought after recruit last year and by all estimates, the kid is very talented. But he is still a true freshman and I believe that USC will suffer one Pac 10 loss in the middle of season and that will kill their title chances. I think Barkley will end up having one game where he makes too many mistakes and it will cost USC. I expect Cal and Oregon to try and make a run at the Trojans for the Pac 10 title, but USC should be able to hold them off and win the Pac 10.

Outside of those four teams, the football will still be great and so will some of the teams. I just think that no one else will have a shot at the National Title. The Big 10 conference should come down to a great battle between Ohio State and Penn State. The two teams will meet at Penn State on November 7th and the game could decide who wins the Big 10 Title. Penn State was able to go to Ohio State last year and win for the 1st time since joining the conference. So you can expect Ohio State to be looking for payback this year. I think Ohio State has the better team by a slight margin, but playing away from Columbus could make this dead even. I have no idea who will win this game, but no matter what happens, I believe that both of these teams will not be able to do enough to get into the BCS Title game.

The ACC should have a pretty balanced conference this year, but no BCS Title contenders to speak of. Virginia Tech is the favorite in the Coastal Division, but the loss of star RB Darren Evans to a torn ACL is a big blow. Georgia Tech seems like they will be able to offer a challenge to Virginia Tech in the division and the game at Georgia Tech on October 17th could be the decider. Florida State seems to be on the upswing and should be able to win the ACC Atlantic Division and play either VA or GA Tech for the ACC Championship. I think Florida State might be able to pull the “upset” on Virginia Tech this year if that becomes the matchup. Obviously when it comes to the ACC, I am a Maryland Terrapins fan, but it seems like it will be a down year for them. I have heard no talk about them contending in the ACC so it seems like 7 or 8 wins is probably the ceiling, but hopefully they can still make a bowl game this year.

Outside of those big conferences, I don’t think there will be any legitimate contenders or huge surprises. I don’t see the Big East being particularly strong this year. There is a lot of talk about Rutgers taking a step forward and knocking off Cincinnati for the Big East Conference Title, but no team from the conference will be a player for the national title. I have heard a TON of talk about Notre Dame being a real dark horse this year, but I don’t envision that happening at all. The Fighting Irish are returning most of their team which did show flashes of brilliance last year, but I can not picture them going undefeated and making the National Championship game like Lou Holtz is trying to push on ESPN. QB Jimmy Clausen and the offense should be good and I think 9 or 10 wins is a strong possibility and maybe they might sniff a BCS game, but they will lose at least once and that will kill any national title hopes.

And finally, there is always talk of the smaller schools making a run at the BCS and it seems like BYU and Boise State are once again in the running and being talked about as trying to make it happen this year. That makes tonight’s opener against Oregon an extremely crucial game for Boise State. Boise State almost went undefeated last year and if they are able to beat Oregon tonight, then they will have a great chance of not being beaten in 2009. Considering they are starting the year ranked #16, they could make a serious claim for getting to the title game if they win out. The strength of schedule will obviously hurt them, but a BCS game would be all but guaranteed if they finish off a perfect season. Oregon will be looking for revenge after losing to Boise 37-32 in 2008, so it should be one great game tonight.

So the bottom line is that the college football season should be a great one this year and I am really looking forward to all the great games. In the final analysis, I have to put the best odds on a Florida vs. Texas matchup in the BCS Title game. Oklahoma and USC have a chance to play spoiler in my opinion, but clearly Florida has the advantage in trying to repeat as National Champions this year.

The Game’s Quick Hits

- The Vancouver Canucks and G Roberto Luongo agreed to a 12-year contract extension worth $64 million over the life of the deal and costing an average yearly salary cap hit of $5.35 million. Luongo was entering the final year of his previous contract, so this staves off him entering free agency next year. Even though this is a huge deal and one of those funky front-loaded deals that the NHL has said they will monitor, I have to say it is definitely a smart move for the Canucks. Luongo is arguably the best goalie in the NHL and elite goaltenders are hard to come by. If Vancouver let him walk next year, they would likely spend years and years trying to replace Luongo. If you watched his performance against the Blues in the first round of the playoffs last year, you will see how good this guy is. He is a game changer and can literally steal numerous games for the Canucks over the course of the season and the playoffs. I believe that he is good enough to carry a team on his back to a Stanley Cup and if Vancouver is able to keep the team together and add another piece or two, they will be dangerous and serious contenders to win the Cup for years to come.

- Well, this Ricky Rubio story continues to try and cling to the news wires. Rubio stated Wednesday that he is still committed to the NBA, but he wants to keep playing in Spain right now because a move to the Timberwolves would be “too risky and complicate his life.” Wow, ok. So you have a team in the best league in the world wanting to bring you over and pay you millions of dollars to play basketball and that would just mess up your life? Am I hearing that right? I guess this guy really is still an 18 year old kid. Maybe I am being too hard on the guy and he just wants to stay close to home. But on the other hand, he is already making big money and he made the decision to enter the NBA draft and says the NBA is his goal, so this is just looking like a joke now. The Timberwolves are looking like fools in all this and should have traded Rubio’s rights to another team who could afford to wait or find another way to get the buyout done. Instead, a team that is hurting for talent just wasted a top 5 draft pick this year…brilliant!

- The fun just keeps rolling on for Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez. Days after allegations surfaced that Michigan violates NCAA rules which limit the amount of time players can practice, it is now being reported that Rodriguez was business partners with a banned Clemson booster in a failed real-estate venture that led to a $3.9 million lawsuit. The details of this are pretty boring, so I won’t get into them, but this seems to be just another distraction for Michigan and it makes you wonder if anything else will be dug up now that people are looking at Rodriguez intensely. Some financial adviser is claiming that Rodriguez is a victim of a fraudulent real estate Ponzi scheme in all this and he has done nothing wrong. We’ll see, but if Clemson banned this guy as a booster, then who knows what underhanded dealings might have been done in the past. And as a semi-related note, players from Michigan’s bitter rival Ohio State, as well as Coach Jim Tressel, came out in support of Michigan and said they believe that Michigan is following the rules and the players who want to be better are going above and beyond the 20 hour per week limit in order to become better. The more I am hearing about this, the more I believe that Michigan might not be guilty of anything. Every top college program is going to have players who are workaholics and are going to push themselves and I don’t think the coaches are necessarily making it mandatory. In anything, you have to put in the work to get better.

- The Denver Broncos are said to be “carefully monitoring” any public comments the New York Jets make that might indicate the team is trying to tamper with suspended WR Brandon Marshall. There is talk that the Jets might try to make a play for Marshall, but there has been no contact between the two teams about a trade and the Broncos want it known to Marshall that the only outcome to his behavior improving is playing for the Broncos. However, later in the day it was reported that if the Broncos were to do a trade with the Jets, they would want LB David Harris to be a part of deal because they would want a player back who could immediately contribute. So I guess there are no “talks” until there are talks huh? Hell, if I were the Broncos I might welcome the tampering! Marshall seems like he just wants to be a headache for them and he could become a poison to the team. The guy is very talented though and they can not give him away for nothing to another team, so this just seems like it will continue to be a bad situation.

- Other NFL News and Notes: Sources are saying that people within the Philadelphia Eagles organization believe that Commissioner Roger Goodell will make a decision on Saturday about Michael Vick’s possible full re-instatement to the NFL. These sources are also saying that the Eagles believe Vick will be suspended for the first 2 games of the season. This is pretty much exactly what I expected would happen, so it will be interesting to hear what news comes out over the weekend…Miami Dolphins RB Ricky Williams negotiated his own 1-year contract extension that will keep him with the team through 2010. Williams has had his share of problems in the past, but I will give him credit for turning things around and still being a productive RB at 32. His coaches and teammates have praised his work ethic and leadership, so I will just say good luck to him on a good season…Bengals QB Carson Palmer, who is recovering from a sprained ankle he suffered on August 14th, will not play in the team’s final preseason game, but will be ready for week 1. Sources indicate he has finally made significant strides and is doing everything now in practice. Well the Bengals needed some good news. They stand no chance of being any good without Palmer, but the fact remains that even with him, I say that Cincinnati will have a mediocre year again, especially with the Ravens and Steelers in the division…And it seems now that the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the CFL will not be signing Adam “Pacman” Jones after all. Real great reporting yesterday then by whoever said it was a done deal…

- U.S. Open Update: Women’s #17 seed and two-time Grand Slam winner Amelie Mauresmo was the latest notable upset victim at the U.S. Open, getting crushed 6-4, 6-0 by Aleksandra Wozniak of Canada in the second round. The women’s side of the draw also saw the #14, #15, and #20 seeds go down in a tough day on the courts for some of the ladies. The men’s side of the draw saw no notable upsets on day 3 and included Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal advancing.