Saturday, September 5, 2009

Week 1 College Football Preview

The first full Saturday of college football action is upon us, so let’s take a look around the top 25 and see what’s going on.

#1 Florida vs. Charleston Southern – As if you have to wonder what is going to happen here. The only real question is whether or not Florida will get close to covering the 73-point spread. This one will be ugly but Charleston Southern is getting $450K for the game, so they will be happy to take the massacre.

#2 Texas vs. Louisiana-Monroe – Oh boy, another epic opener…Texas is following recent tradition of playing a team from a non-BCS conference in the opener and they have won those games by an average of 40+ points. Expect no difference here…

#3 Oklahoma vs. #20 BYU – Now this is more like it. I give much respect to both schools for scheduling a tough game for the opener. This will happen on a neutral field at Cowboys Stadium and it should be fun to watch. Obviously, BYU is trying to beef up their schedule in an attempt to improve their chances of making a BCS bowl game this year. The two teams are pretty similar, but there is no doubt that Oklahoma has the better talent across the board. BYU has lost 12 straight games to ranked non-conference opponents dating back to 1998. I don’t expect that streak to end here. Oklahoma should win, but being the opener, it could be closer than some people think. That could help BYU down the road if they get on a winning streak. OU’s All-American caliber TE Jermaine Gresham is out for this game with a knee injury, so that could hamper Oklahoma’s offense a little bit and make things even closer.

#4 USC vs. San Jose State – At least this game is not a cupcake for USC, but I would expect a pretty sizeable win. Freshman QB Matt Barkley will make his highly anticipated debut and there is always a slight chance that he could make some mistakes that will cost the Trojans. The talent gap between these two teams will be too great however to be thinking an upset could happen. USC is 28-1 against WAC opponents and San Jose State has not beaten a ranked opponent since 2000. Expect those trends to hold.

#5 Alabama vs. #7 Virginia Tech – This is one of the two big marquee games this weekend and I am really looking forward to it. Alabama beat ACC member Clemson in the opener last year and will be looking to do the same to Virginia Tech. The loss of Virginia Tech RB Darren Evans (torn ACL) is a big loss for the Hokies. Alabama will be going with first-year starter Greg McElroy at QB, so this could turn into more of a defensive battle. I have to give the edge to Alabama in that department and they have the edge in the game overall. The level of competition in the SEC is higher than the ACC and I would expect Alabama to pull out the win here.

#6 Ohio State vs. Navy – Ohio State has not lost a home opener since 1978 and Navy is trying to replace their leading rushers from last season. It doesn’t take a genius to predict a comfortable win for the Buckeyes in this one. If they have any hopes of sneaking into the BCS title game, they can not afford to look bad against teams they should beat handily.

#8 Mississippi vs. Memphis – Expectations are running extremely high at Mississippi for the first time in a long while. The return of QB Jevan Snead has a great deal to do with that. Mississippi is expected to make a big run to win the SEC West and get a shot at Florida in the SEC Championship game this year. Remember, Mississippi was the only team to beat the Gators last year, so they have the talent and should have the inside track to win the West Division this year. Memphis last beat Ole Miss in 2004 but has lost four straight and it should be five straight after Sunday.

#9 Penn State vs. Akron –A home opener for Penn State against a MAC opponent, who Joe Paterno is 39-1 against in his career at Penn State…you do the math on that one.

#9 Oklahoma State vs. #13 Georgia – This is the other big marquee game of the weekend and it will be taking place in Stillwater, OK. Oklahoma State was blown out two years ago when they went to Georgia, so you can expect some payback coming here. The Cowboys return most of their offensive starters and will be looking to light up the scoreboard and try to join Texas and Oklahoma at the top of the Big 12 South. Georgia is trying to replace QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, so they will have to put a premium on defense. In this case, I believe the offense will win out. The crowd should be electric and be able to carry Oklahoma State to a victory here. Expect QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant to hook up early and often in this one. Georgia might be able to keep things close, but I just don’t think they will be able to score enough points.

#11 LSU vs. Washington – LSU opens up on the road and is actually making the furthest trip away from home to play a game in the history of the school. Washington has lost 14 straight games and I expect that streak to continue. Even with a home game, Washington does not have enough talent to handle an SEC powerhouse like LSU. The Tigers will be competing with Mississippi this season to win the SEC West and that should be a fun race to witness. I expect LSU to start their quest with a comfortable win here.

#12 California vs. Maryland – This does not look to be a good opener for my home state Terps. California lost at Maryland last year, but the game started at 9 am PT, so there was plenty of talk that Cal “sleepwalked” through that game and that proved to be the difference. This year though, the game is at Cal and Cal is returning a better team than Maryland. The Golden Bears feature RB Jahvid Best, who might be the best player in nation not named Tebow, Bradford, or McCoy. There is talk that Cal could also challenge USC for the Pac 10 Title this year, so all signs are pointing to a sizeable Cal victory. I expect the Terps to maybe hang close for a half, but then lose by 2-3 touchdowns. I just don’t see Maryland having anything better than a mediocre season. They do sport a 6-2 record against top 25 teams the past two years, but Cal is 27-4 at home since 2004. Something has to give and it will be the Terps in this one.

#15 Georgia Tech vs. Jacksonville State – Georgia Tech brutalized Jacksonville State to open the 2008 season so it looks like they want to come back for more! Expect a blowout once again…thank you, drive through…

#18 Florida State vs. Miami, FL – This used to be the biggest game of opening weekend, but in recent years the game has lacked luster. Going into 2009 though, both Florida State and Miami are finally on the rise again. This is the first matchup since 2006 where either team has been ranked in the top 25. Both teams are returning solid QBs, but the Seminoles need to replace their top 2 receivers from last year. Obviously, Florida State is further along in the rebuilding process and should win this game. But Miami is slowly getting better and I think the potential exists for an upset. Do not be surprised if Miami keeps the game close or even ends up shocking FSU with a win.

#21 North Carolina vs. The Citadel – Butch Davis has come into UNC and turned things around for the Tar Heels. After doubling their win total last season, expectations are running high for continued success. They return 9 starters on defense and they have the potential to make some noise in the ACC this year if things come together. Look for UNC to get off to an easy start by beating up on The Citadel.

#22 Iowa vs. Northern Iowa – Iowa will look to get off to a good start and see what they have in the running game. RB Shonn Greene went to the NFL and RB Jewel Hampton is out for the season, so Iowa will have to turn to two untested backs for success. Northern Iowa is actually ranked #4 in the FCS (formerly Div. 1-AA), so they could hang around in this game. But Iowa has won 13 straight against UNI and their only loss came the first time these teams played…in 1898! Expect Iowa to take care of business…

#23 Notre Dame vs. Nevada – Notre Dame will get a stiff test in this one and we will get to see if all this BCS Bowl game talk is overblown or not. If Notre Dame is not prepared and careful, they could get upset in this game. Nevada is a solid team and they are coached well. Their QB, Colin Kaepernick, is a potential star in the making and the team has 2 RBs who have hit 1000 yards in a season before. I would not be surprised if Notre Dame loses this game. However, being at home and with high expectations and lots of returning talent, I expect the Fighting Irish to do enough to win.

#24 Nebraska vs. Florida Atlantic – Nebraska has slowly built their program back up and for the first time in a long while, they are favorites to win the Big 12 North. They are lucky all the firepower in the Big 12 is in the South Division, but they will get their shot in due time to see how good they are. I expect an easy victory at home over Florida Atlantic, who is probably just happy for the exposure and the payday like Charleston Southern.

#25 Kansas vs. Northern Colorado – Kansas is another program that has slowly built some success and they will try to continue it in 2009. This game should be a fairly easy cupcake win for them at home.

Special Note: Michigan vs. Western Michigan – With all the turmoil and rumors running rampant around the Michigan program this week, don’t be surprised if Western Michigan hangs around and gives the Wolverines trouble in this game.

The Game’s Quick Hits

Friday Night Smackdown: I have to say that I really enjoyed Smackdown this week and thought it was a great show. Smackdown continues to be better than Raw most every week and the difference is obvious and simple: Smackdown focuses more on in-ring action while Raw tries to mix in way too many pointless segments. I am really loving CM Punk’s character right now. He opened the show coming out dressed as Jeff Hardy and got some really intense heat as he trashed Hardy and his lifestyle and reminded us all he got rid of the “Charismatic Enabler” and is the only straight edge World Champion in history. It was a great segment and the interruption of it by Matt Hardy was pretty obvious, but it worked well to set up the main event between the two. I thought the match Punk and Hardy had was really solid. Punk continually attacked Hardy’s abdomen, which is what kept him out for a period due to surgery, and he stayed on it with every chance he got. I love when you see consistency in a match like that. Matt put up a really good fight and I was fine with the no contest ending. The match was a personal affair and not about wins and losses. The Undertaker coming out and preventing Punk from slamming that chair around Hardy’s neck into the ring post was perfect and the huge chokeslam on Punk through the announce table was a good punctuation to the evening.

The other major development of the evening was John Morrison defeating Rey Mysterio for the Intercontinental Championship. The WWE pulled a fast one on me here as I expected Dolph Ziggler to somehow get his title shot early and win the match. But it seems as if the WWE was determined to keep Ziggler’s title shot for Breaking Point and Morrison stepped in to keep the belt on a face. The match between Mysterio and Morrison was excellent though and one of the best on free TV this year. The action was at a fast pace for most of the match and there was a great deal of excitement and back and forth action. I was glad to see that Mysterio put in an excellent match and did not sandbag it because of his suspension. Morrison looked like a star in the ring and his victory was well deserved. Between this match and the Punk/Hardy main event, Smackdown really delivered a great show last night.

And on a last WWE note, it was reported that the WWE signed Ring of Honor’s Nigel McGuinness to a contract. I don’t really know anything about Nigel, but I have read he is about on the same level as Bryan Danielson. So it seems as if the rumor of WWE raiding ROH’s talent is indeed true. Hopefully both of them will get a fair chance to showcase their skills and will not be wasted.

- On Friday afternoon, University of Oregon football suspended RB LeGarrette Blount for the rest of the season after he punched Boise State player Byron Hout last night after Oregon’s 19-8 loss. The incident marred a great marquee matchup on college football’s opening night and Blount had to be dragged off the field and stopped from trying to get into the stands. In my opinion, this guy is a total idiot and there is no excuse for what he did. The suspension is justified and I am glad that Oregon acted swiftly and did not wait for the Pac 10 to render a decision. Hout should not have smacked Blount’s shoulder pads and taunted him after the game, but punching the man in return is absolutely uncalled for. There is no place for those types of actions and I think the University is sending a good message and they are sincere when they say that Blount’s actions are not what Oregon football is all about. Blount has had problems in the past and he seems like the type of young kid who just doesn’t get it. I sincerely hope that no NFL team decides to draft Blount. He looked terrible last night and has been lazy and out of shape for most of the offseason according to reports. I don’t see him as any sort of impact player and I hope he regrets his actions and can learn from them in time.

- Don’t pick up your phone if you are an offensive coordinator these days. The Buffalo Bills fired OC Turk Schonert on Friday and replaced him with quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt. Schonert is now the 3rd OC to be fired before the season following Kansas City’s Chan Gailey and Tampa Bay’s Jeff Jagodzinski. This probably was another smart move though because Buffalo’s offense has been downright horrible in the preseason. You can blame Terrell Owens’ toe injury, but that can only go so far. People are wondering how teams can get rid of their OCs so close to the season starting. I actually think it is a great move because why would you suffer through bad play calling and coaching if you already have seen it developing and your offense is not progressing? At least these teams can now try a different direction that may produce results when the games start to count.

- NFL News and Notes: Vikings QB Brett Favre was fined $10,000 for the illegal crackback block he threw against Eugene Wilson of the Texans. There is nothing much to see here as this was expected. It was a dumb play all around and the Vikings should not be running that type of play unless they want Favre getting hurt…The Patriots are expected to cut backup QB Andrew Walter, which would leave rookie QB Brian Hoyer as the only one left on the roster to be Tom Brady’s backup. This is quite the bold move by the Patriots. Having Matt Cassel as a backup with at least some time in the system is one thing, but going with a rookie? They had better hope Brady stays healthy this year…

- Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk took advantage of optimal scoring conditions at the Deutsche Bank Championship, the 2nd leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Sixty-four players broke par in round 1, but Stricker and Furyk led the way with 8-under par rounds of 63 to share the lead by 2 shots over a pack of five players. Both Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson struggled to make anything happen on day 1, shooting rounds of 1-under and even par, respectively. News came out later in that day that both have committed to playing in the BMW Championship next week as well. Again, Tiger looked uneasy out there and could not get into any sort of rhythm. He was fighting the putter again and he is really buried down the leaderboard. It seems like another one of those weeks where he will just be off his game enough not to contend. But I also said that last week and he almost won the tournament. It seems like the course this week will be playing a little easier though, and unless Tiger goes really low tomorrow, he will probably not come close to winning this week. Stricker seems to raise the level of his game and throwing that huge round out there playing in the same group with Tiger had to send a message. Tiger really needs to get on top of his game or he will wind up losing the FedEx Cup to Stricker.

- MLB News and Notes: Phillies P Pedro Martinez pitched seven strong innings Thursday night, giving up only 1 run and striking out 9 to outshine Tim Lincecum and beat the Giants 2-1. The win moved Martinez to 3-0 after 5 starts with the Phillies. I have to say I am pretty impressed with Pedro and he is proving the doubters wrong. In fact, it seems like a cure for many pitchers is moving from the AL to the NL. Brad Penny had a great outing recently and John Smoltz continues to pitch well for the Cardinals. Clearly, the AL is the dominant league offensively and can just beat teams into submission. Great pitching and small ball can be highly effective though, so it should be a great postseason this year to see who wins out. The Phillies look like they are rounding into form and becoming more formidable as they look to defend their championship…MLB fined Red Sox P Jonathan Papelbon $5,000 for slow play and taking too long to deliver his first pitch Tuesday night. Papelbon says that he has been fined more than $10,000 for slow play this year so far. Well, if you want to send a message and speed up play, hitting player’s wallets is the way to do it. I applaud the efforts because there is nothing worse than a baseball game that just drags on and on. Speeding up play and getting to the action can only help build MLB’s fan base and keep things exciting…

- NBA News and Notes: The Knicks are expected to sign restricted free agent David Lee to a 1-year deal worth between $6 and $8 million after Labor Day. There is also talk that Nate Robinson will be brought back on a 1-year deal as well. The Knicks like Lee, but president Donnie Walsh is saying he wants to maintain payroll flexibility for next season and will not do longer term contracts. The Knicks will be gunning for LeBron James, Chris Bosh and others next summer. I have no idea why LeBron would want to go to the Knicks. He has already rebuilt the Cavs and there would be better situations out there besides the Knicks, who can’t seem to do anything right in recent years. If I were James, I would stay away, but maybe he will be lured by the aura of New York and trying to make the Knicks great again…Restricted free agent Ramon Sessions agreed to a 4-year, $16 million contract with the Timberwolves and will be joining them as the Bucks are not expected to match the deal. The Timberwolves needed another PG to compete with Jonny Flynn after failing to bring Ricky Rubio over from Spain. Sessions also spurned the Knicks, who as stated previously are not doing any long term deals. This will increase speculation that the Timberwolves may try to move Rubio in a trade, but they still remain adamant that they will wait for Rubio. Well kudos to the Wolves for actually signing a player and getting him on your team…

- U.S. Open Update: Day 5 at the U.S. Open was very quiet with no notable upsets occurring on either the men’s and women’s sides of the draw. Both #2 seeds, Serena Williams on the women’s side and Andy Murray on the men’s side, advanced as did #3 seeds Venus Williams and Rafael Nadal.

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