Friday, September 18, 2009

Week 3 College Football Preview

The college football season has gotten off to a pretty exciting start this season and there looks to be a few interesting games coming up in week 3. Let’s take a look at the matchups in the Top 25 and see what we have:

#1 Florida (2-0) vs. Tennessee (1-1) – The Florida-Tennessee rivalry is one of the most heated in all of college football and this game should be at a fever pitch. But it will not be because Tennessee has a real shot to go down to Florida and win. All eyes will be on this game to see just how badly Florida wants to beat up on the Volunteers. That’s because new Tennessee Coach Lane Kiffin shot his mouth off and made some crazy comments when he was hired. He said that he would end Tennessee’s 4-game losing streak against the Gators and sing “Rocky Top” all night long. More importantly though, he falsely accused Florida Coach Urban Meyer of a recruiting violation and was forced to apologize. The Gators may forgive, but they will not forget. History shows that when Florida and QB Tim Tebow get mad and motivated, they absolutely crush the competition. Things should be no different in this game. Tennessee has nowhere near the talent needed to beat the Gators, especially on the road. The point spread in this game is 30 and I would not be surprised to see Florida cover that easily. This one could be very ugly and embarrassing.

#2 Texas (2-0) vs. Texas Tech (2-0) – This is the rematch of one of the best college football games of last year and probably one of the best of all time. Texas went to Texas Tech ranked #1, but quickly fell down 19-0. Texas QB Colt McCoy was able to rally the Longhorns to a 33-32 lead with 1:29 left to play. Unfortunately for Texas, that was one second too much as Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell found WR Michael Crabtree with a pass and Crabtree broke a tackle to get in the end zone with 0:01 left in the game. This time around however, there is no Harrell and no Crabtree for Tech. Texas Tech lost a great deal of talent through graduation and the NFL Draft and they are not as good as last year. Texas on the other hand has returned most of their team and is the big favorite in this game. Texas always seems to beat up on their Big 12 rivals at home, so I would expect a pretty big win for Texas and a measure of revenge for them in this game.

#3 USC (2-0) vs. Washington (1-1) – USC opens up their Pac 10 schedule with a trip up to Washington as they look for their 8th straight conference title. This would appear to be a huge mismatch. USC has been dominant for years now, while Washington has been the doormat of the conference. They lost 15 games in a row until finally scoring a win over Idaho last week. Washington does have one potential advantage. Their new head coach, Steve Sarkisian, was an assistant coach at USC for each of their 7 consecutive conference titles and is largely credited with building USC into an offensive powerhouse. He also brought along Nick Holt, who was the architect of USC’s dominant defense the past 3 seasons. So Washington could have a chance to develop a game plan that will work against the Trojans. But Washington has not beaten USC since 2001 and there is a sizable talent gap. Unless USC has a total letdown from their huge win over Ohio State last week, they should be able to win this one comfortably. However, don’t be shocked if the game is closer than expected. USC QB Matt Barkley is expected to play despite a bruised shoulder.

#4 Alabama (2-0) vs. North Texas (1-1) – Alabama figures to take a cupcake break this week as North Texas pays them a visit. Alabama looked very good in their opening week win over Virginia Tech, but they lacked some spark last week in a 40-14 win over Florida International. The Crimson Tide let FIU hang around until the 4th quarter before putting the game away. Coach Nick Saban will hope for a better effort this week before Alabama starts SEC play next week. Alabama could be without star WR Julio Jones, but they should have more than enough to handle North Texas. North Texas has lost 13 straight to ranked teams since 1996 and have been outscored 297-23 in 5 games against top 5 teams since 2004. Expect carnage on the field with those types of trends…

#5 Penn State (2-0) vs. Temple (0-1) – Penn State looks to get fatter on some more cupcakes as they look to have another easy game against a weak opponent. Coach Joe Paterno still thinks his team needs to improve and he has a point on the offensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lions have not rolled up the score on Akron and Syracuse, but their defense has been dominant. Penn State has not lost to Temple since 1941 and has outscored them 123-3 in the past three games since the teams signed a 7-year commitment to play each other. Penn State won 45-3 last year and they can expect the same again this year.

#5 Mississippi (1-0) vs. Southeastern Louisiana (2-0) – Mississippi caught a break having a bye week and then an easy game against Southeastern Louisiana. No less than a dozen players came down with flu-like symptoms after the team returned home from a 45-14 win over Memphis in the opening game of the season and the outbreak spread, eventually effecting 30 players on the team. QB Jevan Snead was one of those players, so the Rebels are just trying to get healthy and work on their game before SEC play starts. It appears that the team is back to being healthy at this point, so it should not be a problem. Southeastern Louisiana is a FCS level school and they should pose no threat to Mississippi on the road. They have lost all 10 games that they have played against FBS schools.

#7 BYU (2-0) vs. Florida State (1-1) – At the start of the season, this had the look of potentially being one of the best early season games. But after the performances of the Cougars and the Seminoles, it might not be as good as early hype would indicate. BYU has looked extremely good, knocking off Oklahoma and then avoiding a letdown last week as they crushed Tulane. Florida State, on the other hand, has looked mediocre. They turned in a good effort against Miami on opening weekend but still lost the game. Then last week they mightily struggled to beat FCS school Jacksonville State. The Seminoles needed 2 late scores to win the game 19-9. Their pass defense has been very suspect and now Florida State has to deal with BYU QB Max Hall, who has looked great to open the year and has sneaked into the Heisman conversation. BYU has had a huge home field advantage in recent years and have won 18 straight games at home dating back to 2005 and they pounded the competition by an average of 30 points in home games last year. It seems like BYU will be able to handle Florida State in this one and come out with a victory. The Seminoles just are not clicking and BYU will be up for this game big time.

#8 California (2-0) vs. Minnesota (2-0) – Cal looks to take their dominant home performances on the road, where things have not been too kind to them recently. The Golden Bears have lost 4 straight road games and 8 of their last 9. If they are going to contend for a Pac 10 championship and try to challenge USC, they need to start playing better on the road. RB Jahvid Best has gotten off to a strong start and things are looking good for Cal. They probably will have enough to be able to beat Minnesota. The Golden Gophers needed a 13 point 4th quarter last week to beat Air Force 20-13 and they allowed Syracuse to take them into overtime before winning 23-20. Those are not exactly what you would call impressive wins. Minnesota has lost 10 straight games to ranked teams and Cal has not lost 5 straight road games since 2000-2001. The odds are favoring Cal to break the road losing streak in this one.

#9 LSU (2-0) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (2-0) – LSU is looking to play a complete 60 minutes of solid football as they host Louisiana-Lafayette. The Tigers have not looked like a really dominant team as they have scratched out a 31-23 win over Washington on opening weekend and a 23-9 win over Vanderbilt last week. LSU needs more consistent quarterback play from Jordan Jefferson and would like to see another solid effort on defense like they had last week. Louisiana-Lafayette will not provide that great of a challenge though. LSU is 21-0 all-time against them and have outscored the Ragin’ Cajuns 957-22 in those games. Louisiana-Lafayette has lost 10 straight to ranked opponents and that will go to 11 after this one.

#10 Boise State (2-0) vs. Fresno State (1-1) – The Friday night primetime game this week features Boise State trying to continue their climb up the rankings. After their huge win over Oregon to start the year and a shutout over Miami (OH), Boise State looks as dominant as they did last year. The Broncos are looking for their 7th WAC title in the past 8 years and a possible bid to a BCS Bowl game. To do it, they will need to go undefeated in the conference. This has not been a problem for Boise State in recent years and they are 54-2 in conference play since 2002. One of those losses came in 2005 to Fresno State and the Bulldogs can sometimes give Boise State trouble. However, Fresno State does not look even close to as good as Boise does. The Broncos won 61-10 last season and Fresno has lost 9 straight to ranked opponents. This should be a good test on the road for Boise State, but I expect them to win fairly easily.

#11 Ohio State (1-1) vs. Toledo (1-1) – Ohio State now has to try and rebound after another disappointing loss in a spotlight game on national TV. The Buckeyes should be able to get the job done against Toledo, but they will have to make sure the defense comes to play. Toledo will bring in a hurry-up, no-huddle offense to try and wear out Ohio State and keep them guessing. The Buckeyes will have superior talent, so I’m not sure how far that will get them. Toledo’s defense has been shaky, so it will be up to QB Terrell Pryor to attack them and put points on the board. He is more effective when he makes plays with his feet, so let’s see if he does that this week. Ohio State should be able to easily take care of business in this one. Oh, and Ohio State has not lost to an intrastate rival in 88 years. Good luck Toledo…

#12 Oklahoma (1-1) vs. Tulsa (2-0) – Oklahoma will look to continue to rebound from the loss of QB Sam Bradford and the stinging opening week loss to BYU. Even though this might look to be an easy game for Oklahoma, especially being at home, it could be closer than some people expect. Question marks still surround QB Landry Jones and Tulsa is a major step up from Idaho State. Tulsa has won 10 and 11 games the past two years and they have led the nation in total offense the past two seasons. They will really be able to give Oklahoma’s defense a good test. Tulsa lost 62-21 at Oklahoma 2 years ago, but by all accounts, this Tulsa team could be better, especially on the defensive side of the ball. With Bradford out and a better Tulsa team coming to give the Sooners their best shot, will the gap close enough from 2 years ago to produce an upset? I would have to say that Oklahoma should be able to win this game. However, another Conference USA team went on the road and beat a Big 12 school when Houston beat Oklahoma State last week. This game could be closer than some people think.

#13 Virginia Tech (1-1) vs. #19 Nebraska (2-0) – This game is looking to be the marquee matchup of the week. Nebraska has beaten up on two lesser opponents in their first two games and now they will get their first real test as they travel to Virginia Tech. The Cornhuskers will be looking to avenge a 35-30 loss at home last year. Tech has won 31 straight games against non-conference opponents at home, so this seems like it will be a tough task for Nebraska. Virginia Tech stayed focused last week as they did not look past Marshall and crushed them 52-10. Tech rebounded nicely after a pretty poor performance against Alabama in the opening game of the season. Virginia Tech is always a tough place for visitors to play and Nebraska will need to play better on defense if they hope to win. They have looked a little shaky even against weaker competition. This should be a hard fought game and I probably have to give the edge to Virginia Tech on the basis of being at home. But the Big 12 is a better conference overall than the ACC, so this one should be extremely close either way.

#15 TCU (1-0) vs. Texas State (1-0) – This game will turn out to be no contest and should be a huge blowout win for TCU. The Horned Frogs opened their season last week with a dominating defensive performance at Virginia. TCU held the Cavaliers only 7 first downs and 177 yards of total offense in a 30-14 win. Virginia was lucky to get two late “garbage time” touchdowns and they did not even snap the ball inside the TCU 20-yard line. The TCU defense only gave up 10.9 points per game last year and they look just as dominant this year. They are 50-6 at home since 1999 and will have no trouble with FCS level school Texas State. They have lost 16 of their last 17 non-conference road games and they will tack on another loss Saturday.

#16 Oklahoma State (1-1) vs. Rice (0-2) – Oklahoma State will have to now try and rebound from a pretty disappointing performance and loss to Houston last week. It seems like the Sports Illustrated cover jinx bit the Cowboys last week and the loss sent them plummeting down from #5 to #16. The defense that looked dominant against Georgia on opening week totally went away against Houston. Houston’s athletic and high powered aerial game tore the Oklahoma State defense to shreds. They will get a chance to rebound against a Rice team that is not really close to the level of Houston. Rice got spanked 55-10 last week by Texas Tech and they have lost 21 straight games to Big 12 opponents. Oklahoma State is likely to be in a foul mood and they should easily beat Rice in this one.

#17 Cincinnati (2-0) vs. Oregon State (2-0) – Cincinnati has been extremely impressive to start the season and they have quickly rocketed up to #17 in the polls. However, they will get a tough test as they travel out west to face Oregon State, who is on the cusp of entering the Top 25 (are #24 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll). The Bearcats’ offense has been explosive this season and QB Tony Pike will look to continue his great play. Oregon State has a good recent track record against ranked opponents. They have won 5 of their past 9 games against ranked teams and 15 of 17 at home, including the huge win over #1 ranked USC last year. They have also won 26 straight non-conference games at home, so it will be a tough test for Cincinnati. Going with the trends, I smell an upset in this one. I think Oregon State could pull this one out and it could be one hell of a football game. This is definitely one to watch on Saturday.

#18 Utah (2-0) vs. Oregon (1-1) – The other major college team from Oregon will also look to pull an upset at home as Utah comes to town to visit the Ducks. Utah will be looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 17 games. They barely escaped last week with a 24-14 win over San Jose State and had to play deep into the 4th quarter to get the job done. The outcome of the game will depend on what Oregon team decides to show up. The Ducks have the ability to be one of the most explosive offenses in the country, but they will not have much luck if they play like they did against Boise State to open the season. The trends favor an upset in this one because Oregon is playing at home. They have won 28 of 30 non-conference games at home dating back to 1995 and are 5-0 against ranked teams in that span. Utah has also not defeated the Ducks in Oregon since 1994. However, Utah has won 6 of its last 8 games against Pac 10 teams. Again, this one bears watching on Saturday and it could be a great game and another upset in the making.

#22 Kansas (2-0) vs. Duke (1-1) – Kansas has gotten off to a very solid start this year and they should be able to keep rolling against Duke. The Kansas offense has been very impressive to start the year, averaging about 42 points per game. They should be able to get another win at home over Duke, who has lost 36 straight games to ranked opponents since 1994. The Duke Football program has been abysmal over the years, but they are starting to show signs of life under Coach David Cutcliffe. However, they are still a pretty bad team and likely will not have much of a chance traveling to Kansas.

#23 Georgia (1-1) vs. Arkansas (1-0) – Georgia had to win a shootout at the end of the game with South Carolina last week to avoid starting 0-2 for the first time in 13 years. The Bulldogs continue to struggle on defense and they will get a challenge from SEC rival Arkansas. Even though Arkansas beat up on a weaker opponent in Missouri State, they still threw for 447 yards passing and looked impressive on offense. The Razorbacks are slowly making strides in Coach Bobby Petrino’s second season, so Georgia will need to be ready to play, especially going on the road. Georgia has won the last 5 meetings between the two teams, but they have not played since 2005. Georgia is also 3-0 at Arkansas and the Razorbacks have lost 8 of their last 10 against ranked SEC opponents. Georgia will most likely have enough to comfortably win this game, but their defense will need to show up.

#24 North Carolina (2-0) vs. East Carolina (1-1) – North Carolina barely escaped with a 12-10 win over Connecticut last week and will look to try and have a better performance against East Carolina. The Tar Heels’ problem has been putting points on the board. They did not score until the 4th quarter last week and needed a safety on defense to win. The Carolina defense returned nine starters and the continuity has shown as North Carolina is ranked in the top 15 nationally in pass defense efficiency, rushing defense, and total defense. They are likely to score points this week because East Carolina is not that good on the defensive side of the ball. East Carolina gave up 4 TDs through the air last week and has allowed 59 points and 478 yards passing in their first two games. The Tar Heels have won 9 of 11 games in this series, but they did lose the last meeting in 2007 on a last second field goal. Being at home should help North Carolina in this game and I would expect them to pull out a victory.

#25 Michigan (2-0) vs. Eastern Michigan (0-2) – The Wolverines are flying high after beating Notre Dame last week and sliding back into the Top 25 for the first time since the end of the 2007 season. Michigan went toe to toe with Notre Dame and made the big plays necessary to win the game. Freshman QB Tate Forcier looked like a star out on the field and the Wolverines look like they will overachieve this year and be better than people expected. Eastern Michigan rolls into town to pay them a visit and Michigan should have no problem taking care of business. The only pitfall could be an emotional letdown after last week, but even if that occurs, it would most likely only make the final score less lopsided.

The Game’s Quick Hits

#20 Miami (FL) 33, #14 Georgia Tech 17 – Georgia Tech looked pretty good moving the ball on their first offensive drive and then it was just downhill from there. Miami put in a pretty dominating performance as they pulled the mild upset over the Yellow Jackets last night 33-17. Miami QB Jacory Harris had another outstanding game. He was very efficient throwing the ball and Miami’s wide receivers just looked to be too athletic for Georgia Tech to handle. As I talked about in my preview, the key for Georgia Tech is moving the ball on the ground. After a pretty good first drive, Tech was totally shut down on the ground by a fast and athletic Miami defense. The Yellow Jackets were not able to get any rhythm and because of that, they once against could not get anything going in the passing game and the whole offense broke down. Miami actually outgained Tech on the ground, a far cry from last year when the Yellow Jackets piled up over 300 yards rushing on the Hurricanes. Miami was able to run the ball effectively and that set up easier throws for Harris to complete. He looks like he could be the next great quarterback at Miami if he continues playing like this. After two really good games, the Hurricanes look like they are starting to get that swagger back and could start to develop back into an elite program. They still have some tough games ahead, but they are looking good. Georgia Tech is not buried at this point by any means, but they need to cut down on the mistakes that killed them last night. They will also have to take a look at how they can better establish the running game and I really think they need to try and get QB Josh Nesbitt more involved with the passing game. He needs to work on some short, quick passes and not just try to throw bombs when the running game bogs down. It is a really simple formula for teams to follow to try and beat Tech…shut down the running game.

Preseason: Capitals 4, Sabres 3 OT – The Caps started their campaign with a 4-3 win in overtime against the Sabres. Brian Pothier scored on a two-man advantage 49 seconds into the extra session to seal the win. Washington also got goals from Alexandre Giroux, Mike Knuble and Jay Beagle. The story of the night though seems to be some stellar play from Semyon Varlamov in net. Coach Bruce Boudreau said that Varly was outstanding in the first two periods and prevented the Sabres from grabbing the advantage. Even Sabres coach Lindy Ruff agreed with that assessment and said Varlamov was the story. I know this is only the first preseason game, but that is really good to hear. If Varlamov can carry his momentum from the playoffs into this season and keep playing solid, the Caps can go a long way. It is nice to see Knuble getting a goal right off the bat too.

- With WR Anthony Gonzalez expected to miss up to 8 weeks with sprained ligaments in his knee, the Indianapolis Colts were quick to jump on the Eagles’ release of WR Hank Baskett. The Colts signed Baskett on Thursday to help fill the void while Gonzalez recovers. Sources are saying that Gonzalez will try to come back after Indianapolis’ October 18th bye week. This is probably a very smart move by the Colts. Baskett is not spectacular, but he is a capable wide receiver who now gets to play with the best quarterback in the league. QB Peyton Manning will likely make Baskett into a better receiver and the Colts won’t miss a beat. This goes to show you how far the Colts think free agent WR Marvin Harrison has fallen. Even with the injury to Gonzalez and a need for a receiver, Harrison being re-signed was not even considered. There has been little to no interest around the league in signing him as well. I think that is pretty amazing and it just proves that when teams feel like you have lost your speed and explosiveness, they won’t touch you.

- Houston Texans CB Dunta Robinson was fined $25,000 by the team for wearing shoes that had the words “Pay me Rick” on them during Houston’s 24-7 loss to the Jets on Sunday. The message was directed toward Texans’ GM Rick Smith because Robinson is miffed about not getting a long-term contract from the team even though he signed his franchise tender from the team over a week ago. I really have no tolerance for stunts like this. The “me first” and “pay me” attitude of some of these players is just disgusting. I have no problem with someone getting paid for their talents, but go about it the right way. There is no need to try and throw a spotlight on yourself and take away from the team. In Robinson’s case, he should be happy that he is getting “franchise player” money this season and he should be focused on helping Houston’s defense. The last time I checked, the Texans didn’t have problems on the offensive side of the ball. It has been the defensive side holding them back. And how did Robinson rise to the challenge on Sunday and prove that he is worth a long-term, big money deal? He had 1 tackle…impressive huh? This guy should just stop whining and play ball and then things will be taken care of. Dunta Robinson is not exactly a household name, so stuff the ego away and try to help your team before you help yourself.

- Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas says that he is healthy and ready to have a great season. He has been working with trainer Tim Grover over the summer and is giving Grover credit for saving his career and helping Arenas get his explosiveness back. He also took a shot at the Wizards and put some blame on them for his failed comebacks from injury the past two years. Arenas claims that if you live, eat, sleep, drink, and think basketball like he does, sometimes you need to be saved from yourself. He says that if someone has an injury that is supposed to take 6 months to heal and they are feeling good 4 months in, it should be the team’s responsibility to step in and not let the player push too hard or try to rush back out on the court just to sell tickets. I can agree with Arenas on that point. The Wizards are pretty much built around Arenas and he brings fans to the seats, but you can’t rush an injury. Now I don’t think the Wizards maliciously tried to put Gilbert into harm’s way, but they could have used better judgment and held him back like Arenas is saying. I think a good bit of responsibility should fall onto Arenas as well, but different people do heal at different paces. And if Arenas was telling the team he was feeling good, then why wouldn’t they want to get him back on the court? Apparently though, Arenas made demands that he wanted to rehab his own way and that he would tell the team when he was healthy. So maybe this whole “controversy” he is causing stems from Gilbert being mad at himself because his rehab plan did not work that well. Injuries can be very tricky, but Gilbert seems to think this trainer has the right methods to get him healthy. I hope that is the case because Arenas is one of the most exciting players in the NBA when he is healthy and the Wizards need all the help they can get to try and get back to being a respectable team.

- In other NBA injury news, Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said that Kevin Garnett is making steady progress in his recovery from knee surgery. Ainge said that Garnett is working and training every day, but he is not yet playing full-court basketball. The team is taking it slow and cautious with Garnett, who is anxious to get going but realizes it is a process. This is a nice example of what Gilbert Arenas is talking about. Obviously, the Celtics are a well-run organization and they realize the value of Garnett and are not trying to put him in jeopardy. Garnett sat out the playoffs last year, so you knew his knee had to really be bothering him and it needed to be fixed. KG is starting to get a little older now and it is important that he rehabs correctly and takes it slow or he could be nagged by these injuries like Arenas. A healthy Kevin Garnett will once again put the Celtics in the mix to win the competitive Eastern Conference.

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